The Online Photographer

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Friday, February 23, 2007

Three Predictions

1. Britney Spears is gay. You heard it here first.

2. The new Canon 1Ds Mk. III is a very interesting camera. Although it has a considerably slower frame-rate and a considerably smaller (effective) buffer than the new 1D Mk. III, its full-frame, 22-MP CMOS sensor is state of the art for image quality in a DSLR-type camera, making its $5,800 pricetag seem like a runaway bargain. It is only 30% heavier and not much larger than the 5D—far smaller than the 1D Mk. III. The sensor has better high-ISO performance than any previous DSLR, using a completely new and unique technical strategy, and very good dynamic range. Finally, the new camera has outstanding low-light AF capability.

3. LaKisha Jones will come in second on "American Idol."



Blogger Player said...

Mike, you might be right about Britney. Since you mentioned it, I see red flags: the failed marriage(s), the Madonna kissing incident, hanging out with Paris and Lindsey, the head shaving "butch" look, and constantly getting drunk and drugged as an escape from a truth she doesn't want to face.

"The Online Psychologist"? ;)

2:19 AM  
Blogger Michael said...

Heh. Regarding #1, I made the same prediction myself just the other day. Tattoo of pink lips on her wrist?

Either way, she is battling something existential, and you have to hope she finds some peace.

Regarding the camera, looks like it might be intriguing, and regarding American Idol, I'm english and well out of it. Though I hear Heather Mills McCartney and Rachel Hunter are going to be on your version of 'Dancing On Ice'. That will be entertaining on so many levels.

3:49 AM  
Blogger Phila said...

2. PLEASE let it be so! My order is already in for the 1DsMkIII.


4:11 AM  
Blogger Max said...

1. Is she? I don't know, but she's really confused, that's for sure.
2. Mike, I'm curious about something, I remember reading that for any given sensor size diffraction would only allow a certain amount of resolution for any given f-stop. That's old news, but it had a huge impact on small sensor digicams, since some of them, the article said, were limited in a way that some camera/lens combination would never be able to use all the megapixels in the sensor, because at the bigger apertures available diffraction had already started to work and the lens couldn't resolve what the sensor could. I guess that means also that for any given sensor at some point, more megapixels won't translate into more resolution at the usual working apertures. Would such limitations come into play with this camera?
3. I'm clueless about that. I feel humiliated when watching reality shows and similar stuff. I'm not normal, I know.
PD: I got the Howe Gelb cd recommended on the C60Crew blog, it's very good!

5:19 AM  
Blogger Andrew Forrester said...

I’ve looked into my crystal balls and,

1.) Having seen her XXX home made video online, which was stolen from her home, I can confirm that she swings both ways & from the chandelier

2.) In body AS could come be included if the 1DsIII has the new lens mount which takes the new Super L lenses from the Canon 40MP MF camera.

3.) Although they may come 2nd, they will still be offered a record deal by Simon Cowell

6:47 AM  
Blogger Ed Wolpov said...

1. Sorry, we don't want her either.
2. I still can't afford it.
3. What!?

7:19 AM  
Blogger Dave said...

I'm so disinterested in #1 and #3 I can't comment. But as for #2: Mark Goldstein who hosts the PhotographyBlog said in a reply (#10) to his posting on the Canon Spring Launch 2007 ( that he was told by Canon that everything for the PMA has been announced. So when do you predict the 1DsMkIII will be announced?

7:21 AM  
Blogger Mike said...

Britney is Gay!?!? Ohmygod

7:53 AM  
Blogger Joe said...

I'm delighted to see this prediction already carried as news elsewhere. (I mean the 1Ds of course, the other two are old news.)

9:52 AM  
Blogger juze said...

Ad 1: "Sorry to burst your bubble, but I've read that in at least a dozen lesbian fantasies," he said, tongue planted firmly in cheek.
Ad 2: Oh. Well, that would make it a pretty brilliant camera, wouldn't it? Apart from Canon's lack of ergonomics, of course.
Ad 3: Huh?

9:59 AM  
Blogger Erik @ The Sand Trap said...

At $5800, I think they could very well sell twice as many as the previous model! Wow.

10:07 AM  
Blogger Richard Sintchak said...

"Britney Spears is gay. You heard it here first."

I figured she must be. She kept spurning my advances.

10:29 AM  
Blogger Ken Tanaka said...

(1) Britney who?

(2) Your 1D2 Mark III predictions are probably mostly on-target, with two exceptions.

a. In-body image stabilization is a trend most popular, and most in demand, in consumer camera systems. If the 1D Mark III doesn't have IS, neither will its big brother. Plus, remember that Canon owns nearly all lens-stationed IS patents and makes a very tidy income from them on its still-camera lenses as well as its far more expensive (and profitable) video lenses.

b. The 1Ds Mark III's list price will be closer to $9,000, reflecting its even deeper encroachment into, and enhancements to, the hallowed medium format film camera retrofit digital back territory. (By 2015 it will be, "Hassel who?") I mean, geez, the lowly retro M8, a wonderful but nostalgic manual 10 Mp camera with an infant's pajama-syle drop bottom, is selling for $5,000. Similarly, Leica has recently raised the price of its Notilux f/1.0 LENS to $5,500.

If I were advising Canon I would suggest that they start the list pricing of the 1Ds III, spec'ed largely as you describe (plus with sensor dust control system), at $9,499.95. Canon would be smart to make hay while the sun shines. The economy's still pretty good and credit is still flowing. (According to recent figures the American public now spends 1% more than it earns.) Canon can always quietly lower prices later but it's much harder to quietly raise prices.

(3) LaKisha who? I think your teen son's entertainment preferences are beginning to take a toll on dad.

10:33 AM  
Blogger winkalman said...

I don't know if these are appropriate questions for a psychic, but here goes:

1) How small of a pixel pitch can legacy 35mm lenses reasonably be expected to resolve, particularly along the edges of the frame?

2) Is in-body shake reduction technically feasible with a full frame sensor considering the increased frame coverage required to accommodate the CCD shift?

10:36 AM  
Blogger wtlloyd said...

Don't know 'bout that 2nd prediction...

11:09 AM  
Blogger david adam edelstein said...

MADE ME LOOK. "Holy smokes, did Canon announce the 1ds too and I missed it??" Thanks Mike :P

11:53 AM  
Blogger Mike Johnston said...

"PD: I got the Howe Gelb cd recommended on the C60Crew blog, it's very good!"

I assume that was meant to be 'PS'? In any event, good on you and I'm glad you like it! It's a CD that has grown on me the more I hear it. I like Howe a lot.


12:16 PM  
Blogger Mike Johnston said...

"So when do you predict the 1DsMkIII will be announced?"

I've already predicted that. Photo East.


12:24 PM  
Blogger Mike Johnston said...

"1) How small of a pixel pitch can legacy 35mm lenses reasonably be expected to resolve, particularly along the edges of the frame?"

For most of them? A little bigger than the pixel pitch of the 5D. (*mischievous grin*)

"2) Is in-body shake reduction technically feasible with a full frame sensor considering the increased frame coverage required to accommodate the CCD shift?"

Your friendly local psychic, um, forgot about that. As Emily Litella used to say, never mind.


12:36 PM  
Blogger Max said...

Sorry Mike, it's a reflex, in Spanish we use the Latin words Post Data (PD) (also abbreviated to posdata these days) to add some extra information to a letter, for example. Yes, It's exactly the same as PS (post script) now I've looked for the dictionary definition.

12:39 PM  
Blogger eolake said...

I like your post. Are you a writer? Do you have a blog?

3:05 PM  
Blogger eolake said...

Andrew really had me going there.

3:14 PM  
Blogger Mick Ryan said...

1. We can all dream!
2. We can all dream!
3. Who?

2:00 AM  
Blogger splasher78 said...

any info on nikon releasing a full frame dslr? i'm just a 'nikon guy' eagerly awaiting nikon's answer to canon's 5D and 1Ds Mk. III...

7:07 AM  
Blogger Mike Johnston said...

Info? Info? We don't need no steenkeeng info.


8:30 AM  
Blogger Eric Hancock said...

We'll see about #1.

Regarding #2, I have absolutely no need for a Canon 1Ds Mk. III, but if / when it is released, I'll certainly get one, motivated by pure lust.

A Canon 1Ds Mk. III would also create a nice, reduced-price aftermarket for Canon 1Ds Mk. II's which are still wonderful cameras.

8:50 AM  
Blogger Mike Johnston said...

"A Canon 1Ds Mk. III would also create a nice, reduced-price aftermarket for Canon 1Ds Mk. II's which are still wonderful cameras."

You think? I'm not so sure about that...

For something to really have a robust reduced-price secondhand market, it has to sell like hot potatoes in the first place. The stellar example of this right now is the Nikon (film) F100. It was such a great camera and so perfectly suited for its market that it just sold boatloads, many to people who used them only lightly. Now that everyone is switching over to digital, the market is flooded with F100s. You can get an F100 in very good condition for less than $300, and that camera is a screaming used bargain at $600.

For the 1Ds mk. II to really be much of anything on the used market, it would have to have sold a lot of copies to fastidious and ambitious--but not terribly active-- amateurs. I just don't know how many have been sold, but I suspect it's a miniscule little smidge of the overall market. Coupled with the continually pent-up high demand for what the 1Ds represents, and I don't think you'll see much if anything in the way of bargains when a replacement is issued. That is, I doubt it will reduce the mk. II's desirability all that much, or create a big superfluity of mk. II's as people migrate. More likely, people who already have a mk.II will not migrate; new sales will be to buys who don't already have 1Ds's at all.

The exception to this would be if the mk. III has a singificantly lower price; this would lower the price of used mk. II's to below the new price of the new model, and that might be a significant hop downward. But that's a different (if related) issue.


9:01 AM  

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