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Friday, January 27, 2006

Predictions By Thom

One of the things I find most annoying about the internet information democracy is the prevalence of photography business and camera market pontifications and prognostications. The DPReview forums are the worst, but probably only because they're the biggest. Having been in the industry a while and on its fringes for a while longer, it's easy for me to see that most such noise is lame, uninformed, derivative, or just plain idiotic. The percentage of "eye-rollers" is high, and I don't even find the true howlers entertaining. It just fosters rumors and feeds misinformation and presents a confused picture of a complicated and volatile industry to people who don't know better.

One bright, shiny exception comes in the form of Thom Hogan's annual predictions. Not only does this guy brazenly predict the marketplace, but he's correct an impressive percentage of the time. Even when he misses, his analyses are good—and almost always fun to read.

I'm late off the mark bringing these to your attention—they came online in finalized form a week or so ago—but Thom's 2006 Predictions are here. A good read amidst the noise and haste, as usual.



Blogger DonovanCO said...

Hogan's "predictions" are very interesting, but in some ways they are a lecture to the manufacturers about what they should and should not do

9:13 AM  

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